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Housing Starts Rising; New Construction Turns The Corner?

Housing Starts (2009-2011) Another day, another signal that the market for newly-built homes is improving.

Single-Family Housing Starts rose to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 430,000 units in October – a 4 percent increase from September and the highest reading in 3 months.

A “Housing Start” is a home on which ground has been broken.

The increase in surprised Wall Street analysts, although it shouldn’t have.

Earlier this week, the National Association of Homebuilders showed that Homebuilder Confidence is at its highest point since May 2010, the effect of better market conditions and more sold units. Rising housing starts amid a lift in builder confidence is to be expected — the two metrics have moved with loose correlation since mid-2000.

However, as with everything in real estate, Single-Family Housing Starts volume varied by location. The nation’s 4 regions posted wide-ranging results :

Northeast Region : + 10.0% from September
Midwest Region : -4.1% from September
South Region : +11.3% from September
West Region : -10.2% from September

Buyers of new construction in Scottsdale can infer two key points from last month’s data.

First, with more homes will being built, home supply should rise, thereby softening pressure on rising home prices. This should help keep homes affordable.

However, the second point is that, with builder confidence rising, buyers are less likely to win price concessions and “free upgrades” in negotiations.

The last 6 weeks of 2011 may be your optimal time to buy new construction. Home prices remain affordable and mortgage rates are rock-bottom. In addition, because there are typically fewer active home buyers during the holidays, you’ll be more likely to locate one of the few remaining new construction “deals”.

Talk to your real estate agent about local trends and new construction.

Homebuilder Confidence Stays Flat

Home builder confidence 2000-2011

Homebuilders are feeling worse about the market for new homes nationwide.

With construction credit tight and competition from foreclosures increasing, the National Association of Homebuilder’s Housing Market Index slipped 1 point in September, falling to levels just below the index’s 12-month average.

The HMI measures homebuilder confidence nationwide. It’s the result of 3 separate homebuilder surveys, each designed to measure a specific facet of the homebuilder’s business.

How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
How is prospective buyer foot traffic?

Each component survey showed a drop-off from August. Responses fell 1 point, 2 points, and 2 points, respectively. Together, September’s composite reading was 14 out of a possible 100 points. Readings over 50 are considered favorable.

The HMI not been above 50 since April 2006.

With homebuilder confidence low — and stagnant — buyers of new homes Mesa in should remain alert for “deals”. Builders are more likely to offer free upgrades and other concessions to incoming buyers. The availability of such deals may increase as the seasons change and as the year comes to a close.

Low mortgage rates are making new homes attractive, too. Last week, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates fell to their lowest levels of all-time. As compared to just 8 weeks ago, 30-year fixed rate mortgage payments are lower by 5 percent at all loan sizes, down $27 per month per $100,000 borrowed.

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by Mark Tayloron | Arizona Mortgage | The Mark Taylor Teamon |

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