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Buyer Foot Traffic Through New Construction Up Nearly Threefold Since 2009

HMI 2000-2012

Home builder confidence in the newly-built, single-family housing market remains high.

In March, for the second consecutive month, the National Association of Homebuilders reports the Housing Market Index at 28 — a doubling of the reading from just 6 months ago and, along with last month, the highest HMI value since June 2007.

When home builder confidence reads 50 or better, it reflects favorable builder conditions in the single-family, new home market. Readings below 50 suggest unfavorable builder conditions.

The HMI itself is a composite reading. It’s the result of three separate surveys sent to home builders by the trade association. The NAHB asks builders to report on their current single-family home sales volume; their projected single-family home sales volume for the next 6 months; and, their current buyer “foot traffic”.

Approximately 400 surveys are returned each month. The results are compiled into the NAHB Housing Market Index.

In March, home builders provided mixed replies to the survey questions :

Current Single-Family Sales : 29 (-1 from February)
Projected Single-Family Sales : 36 (+2 from February)
Buyer Foot Traffic : 22 (Unchanged from February)

It’s noteworthy, despite slowing sales in March, that home builders expect a surge in new home sales over the next 6 months. The reasons for this are several and should be of interest to today’s home buyers.

First, the jobs market is heating up. The U.S. economy has added more than 1 net new million jobs over the last 6 months and that is increasing the pool of potential home buyers in Arizona and nationwide.

Second, the housing market, in general, is improving. Home sales are brisk in many U.S. markets and home supplies are dropping. This creates pressure on home prices to rise.

And, third, low mortgage rates have helped pushed home affordability to all-time highs. More home buyers earning the national median income can afford a median-priced home than at any time in history.

It’s all culminated in a monthly Buyer Foot Traffic reading which, at 22, is nearly triple the foot traffic reading from just three years ago. Home buyers — in Phoenix and everywhere else — are out in full-force, capitalizing on today’s buyer-friendly market.

If you’re looking to buy new construction in the second half of 2012, consider moving up your time frame. Market conditions are constantly changing, and may move out of your favor. As builder optimism increases, the price you pay for your new home may increase, too.

Home Builders See More Sales, Higher Prices Ahead

Housing Market Index 2000-2012

Homebuilder confidence is soaring.

For the fourth straight month, the National Association of Homebuilders reports an increase in its Housing Market Index. The index climbed 4 points to 25 this month — its second four-point gain since October.

With home sales activity increasing across all four regions, the monthly HMI has now nearly doubled in value since June 2011.

The HMI is now at a 55-month high.

The Housing Market Index itself is a composite reading; the result of three home builder surveys sent by the National Association of Homebuilders to its members monthly. Home builders report back on current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume for the next 6 months; and current buyer “foot traffic”.

The NAHB then results compiles the surveys into a single reading.

In January, home builders reported improving sales conditions across all three categories :

Current Single-Family Sales : 25 (+3 from December)
Projected Single-Family Sales : 29 (+3 from December)
Buyer Foot Traffic : 21 (+3 from December)

The Housing Market Index corroborates recent U.S. government data that suggests housing is mending in Arizona. Both Housing Starts and New Home Sales have out-performed expectations of late, it’s been shown, and the stock of new homes for sale nationwide is dwindling.

All of this, of course, is happening as demand from buyers heats up. Foot traffic through builder homes is higher than it’s been in more than 3 years, say the builders — a time period that includes the duration of the 2010 home buyer tax credit.

It’s no surprise, therefore, that builders expect a strong 2012.

Jobs data is improving, mortgage rates remain low, and housing momentum is building. For home buyers in Phoenix , however, it may spell higher home prices ahead. Big demand and small supply creates scarcity and scarcity correlates to rising prices.

If you’re shopping new homes, the best “deal” may be the one you find today.

Home Builders Experiencing Heavy Foot Traffic And Higher Sales Volume

Housing Market Index 2010-2011 In another good sign for the housing market, today’s home builders believe that the housing market has turned a corner.

For the third straight month, the Housing Market Index — a home builder confidence survey from the National Association of Homebuilders — reported strong monthly gains.

December’s Housing Market Index climbed 2 points to 21 in December after a downward revision to last month’s results. The index is now up seven points since September 2011, and sits at a 19-month high.

When home builder confidence reads 50 or better, it reflects favorable conditions in the single-family new home market. Readings below 50 reflect unfavorable conditions.

The Housing Market Index has not crossed 50 since April 2006.

The HMI itself is actually a composite reading; the result of three related home builder surveys. The National Association of Homebuilders asks its members about their current single-family home sales volume; their projected single-family home sales volume for the next 6 months; and their current buyer “foot traffic”.

The results are compiled into the single Housing Market Index tally.

In December, builder survey responses showed strength across all 3 questions :

Current Single-Family Sales : 22 (+2 from November)
Projected Single-Family Sales : 26 (+1 from November)
Buyer Foot Traffic : 18 (+3 from November)

These results support the recent New Home Sales and Housing Starts data, both of which show an increase in single-family sales, and a decrease in new home housing supply.

When demand rises and supplies fall, home prices climb.

It’s also noteworthy that the Housing Market Index put buyer foot traffic at newly-built homes at its highest level since May 2008. With even more buyers expected to enter the market, new home prices are expected to rise across Scottsdale in 2012 — especially in the face of shrinking home supplies.

For now, though, with home prices stable and mortgage rates low, buyers can grab “a deal”. 60 days forward, though, may be too late.

The Spring Buying Season unofficially starts February 6, 2012.

Homebuilders Getting Optimistic; Higher Home Prices Ahead?

Housing Market Index 2009-2011 Homebuilder confidence continues to rise.

Just two months after falling to a multi-month low, the Housing Market Index surged again in November, climbing another three points to 21. It’s the second straight month that the HMI posted a 3-point gain, catapulting the index to an 18-month.

The Housing Market Index is monthly report from the National Association of Homebuilders. It’s meant to measure confidence among the nation’s homebuilders, scored on a scale of 1-100.

When homebuilder confidence reads 50 or better, it reflects favorable conditions for homebuilders. Readings below 50 reflect unfavorable conditions.

The Housing Market Index has not read north of 50 since April 2006.

As an index, the HMI is actually a composite reading; the result of three separate surveys sent to homebuilders each month. The National Association of Homebuilders asks it members about current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume over the next 6 months; and current “foot traffic”.

In November, builder responses were stronger in all 3 categories :

Current Single-Family Sales : 20 (+3 from October)
Projected Single-Family Sales : 25 (+1 from October)
Buyer Foot Traffic : 15 (+1 from October)

And, beyond the headline data, there is an important, noteworthy item in this month’s Housing Market Index.

In November, “Current Single Family Sales” climbed 3 points for the second straight month, and is now at the highest point since May 2010 — the month after last year’s home buyer tax credit expired. And, this increase in sales volume is occurring as new home construction is falling, thereby reducing home inventory nationwide.

That’s an important point for Phoenix home buyers.

With more new home sales and fewer new home listings, prices are likely to increase into 2012. Especially with home builders predicting higher sales levels over the next 6 months, and seeing higher levels of buyer foot traffic through their properties today.

For now, though, home prices are stable and mortgage rates are low. This creates low-cost homeownership throughout AZ , and helps new home construction remain affordable.

If you’re in the market for new home construction, the next 60 days may prove to be your best time to get “a deal”.

Homebuilder Confidence Rises on Surging Sales Volume, Foot Traffic

Homebuilder Confidence 2009-2011 Homebuilder confidence is rebounding sharply.

Just one month after falling to a multi-month low, the Housing Market Index rebounded four points to 18 for October. It’s the highest reading for the HMI since May 2010 — the month after last year’s homebuyer tax credit expiration.

The Housing Market Index is published monthly by the National Association of Homebuilders and is scored on a scale of 1-100. Readings above 50 indicate favorable conditions for homebuilders. Readings below 50 indicate unfavorable conditions.

The index has been below 50 since May 2006 — a 66-month streak.

The Housing Market Index is a composite reading; the result of three separate surveys sent to home builders each month. Builders are asked about current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume over the next 6 months; and current “foot traffic”.

In October, builder responses were stronger in all 3 categories :

Current single-family sales : 18 (+4 from September)
Projected single-family sales : 24 (+7 from September)
Buyer foot traffic : 14 (+3 from September)

Meanwhile, of particular interest to today’s Scottsdale home buyers is that builders expect volume to surge over the next two seasons. And, with current sales volume rising and foot traffic strengthening, the fall and winter months could be strong ones in the new homes market.

In addition, the builder trade group press release states that rising costs for materials are squeezing building profit margins.

For buyers, it all adds up higher home prices ahead. As builders grow more confident about the housing market, they’re less likely to make concessions on pricing or upgrades. Rising building costs fortify that argument. The “great deal” will be tougher to negotiate.

At least mortgage rates are low.

Low mortgage rates are keeping homes affordable in Arizona and nationwide. If you’re looking for the right time to buy new construction, therefore, this month may be it.

Homebuilder Confidence Stays Flat

Home builder confidence 2000-2011

Homebuilders are feeling worse about the market for new homes nationwide.

With construction credit tight and competition from foreclosures increasing, the National Association of Homebuilder’s Housing Market Index slipped 1 point in September, falling to levels just below the index’s 12-month average.

The HMI measures homebuilder confidence nationwide. It’s the result of 3 separate homebuilder surveys, each designed to measure a specific facet of the homebuilder’s business.

How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
How is prospective buyer foot traffic?

Each component survey showed a drop-off from August. Responses fell 1 point, 2 points, and 2 points, respectively. Together, September’s composite reading was 14 out of a possible 100 points. Readings over 50 are considered favorable.

The HMI not been above 50 since April 2006.

With homebuilder confidence low — and stagnant — buyers of new homes Mesa in should remain alert for “deals”. Builders are more likely to offer free upgrades and other concessions to incoming buyers. The availability of such deals may increase as the seasons change and as the year comes to a close.

Low mortgage rates are making new homes attractive, too. Last week, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates fell to their lowest levels of all-time. As compared to just 8 weeks ago, 30-year fixed rate mortgage payments are lower by 5 percent at all loan sizes, down $27 per month per $100,000 borrowed.

Homebuilders Expect A Soft Winter Housing Market

Homebuilder confidence 2009-2011

Two months after posting their worst confidence reading of 2011, home builders say they foresee no improvement in the immediate- or medium-term market for new homes nationwide.

In August, for the second straight month, the Housing Market Index read 15.

The HMI is a monthly housing survey, published by the National Association of Homebuilders. It’s scored on a scale of 1-100 with readings over 50 suggesting favorable home builder conditions. Readings under 50 suggest unfavorable conditions.

The Housing Market Index has been below the 50-point benchmark since 2006.

To calculate the HMI, home builders are asked 3 separate questions, each addressing the different element of the new home sales business.

How are today’s market conditions for the sale of new homes?
How do you expect market conditions to be 6 months from now?
How are the current foot traffic of prospective buyers?

Based on the August answers to these questions, builders are witnessing an improvement with the current market, partially fueled by low mortgage rates, but expect momentum to fade into early-2012.

As a home buyer in Scottsdale , this may bode well for you. If you can wait to buy a home, you may find builders more willing to concede on price or upgrades.

The other side of that conversation, though, is that while you may save money on the home, you may lose it in your monthly payments. Rising mortgage rates can quickly zap your savings — adding tens of thousands in interest costs to your budget long-term.

For now, home prices remain low and mortgage rates do, too. Home affordability is at an all-time high. Take advantage of what the market gives you.

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Posts Tagged ‘HMI’

Buyer Foot Traffic Through New Construction Up Nearly Threefold Since 2009

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