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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week: February 25th, 2013

What's Ahead This Week A quiet past week in economic news caused mortgage rates to worsen slightly.

This week, however, will be packed with economic reports which may have an impact on interest rates going forward.

Freddie Mac reported that the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose by 3 basis points from 3.53 percent to 3.56 percent with borrowers paying 0.8 in discount points and all of their closing costs.

The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was unchanged from last week at 2.77 percent with borrowers paying 0.8 in discount points and all of their closing costs.

In other economic news, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January fell slightly to 0.0 percent as compared to Wall Street expectations of 0.1 percent and December’s reading of 0.1 percent.

The Core CPI, which measures consumer prices exclusive of volatile food and energy sectors, was 0.3 percent for January and surpassed analyst expectations of 0.2 percent and December’s reading of 0.1 percent.

Inflation Remains Low

These readings remain well below the 2.5 percent inflation level cited by the Fed as cause for concern.

According to the Department of Commerce, Housing Starts for January fell to 890,000 from December’s 954,000 and below Wall Street projections of 910,000.

These seasonally adjusted and annualized numbers are obtained from a sample of 844 builders selected from 17,000 newly permitted building sites.

Falling construction rates could further affect low supplies of homes reported in some areas; as demand for homes increase, home prices and mortgage rates can be expected to rise.

Full Economic Calendar This Week

This week’s economic news schedule is full; Treasury auctions are scheduled for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. New Home Sales will be released Tuesday.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is set to testify before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday’s news includes the Pending Home Sales Index and Durable Orders.

Thursday’s news includes the preliminary GDP report for Q4 2012, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, and weekly jobless claims.

Friday brings Personal Income and Core Personal Expenditures (CPE).

Consumer Sentiment, the ISM Index and Construction Spending round out the week’s economic news.

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Drops To 3.49% — An All-Time Low

Freddie Mac mortgage rates

For the first time in 9 weeks, mortgage rates have made new lows.

According to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate fell 6 basis points to 3.49% this week, tying the all-time low set in late-July. The 15-year fixed rate mortgage also dropped, moving to 2.77%. This, too, marks an all-time low.

The Federal Reserve’s plan to pressure mortgage rates down may be working.

However, depending on where you live, your access to these all-time rates may be limited. This is because the Freddie Mac “published rate” is a national average based on the government-backed group’s survey of more 125 banks.

Mortgage rates can vary by region.

For example, this week, mortgage applicants in the West Region are most likely to get the lowest rates of anyone.

In the West Region, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates are averaging 3.43 percent with an accompanying 0.6 discount points. By contrast, applicants in the Southeast Region are most likely to get the highest rates with the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is averaging 3.53% with an accompanying 0.7 discount points.

1 discount point is a fee equal to one percent of your loan size. Loans with more accompanying discount points pay higher total closing costs.

This week’s record-low rates are a boon to home affordability and, as compared to last September, mortgage rates are much improved :

September 2011 : Average rate of 4.09%
September 2012 : Average rate of 3.49%

Over the past 12 months, this 60-basis point mortgage rate improvement has increased the maximum purchase price of a Phoenix home buyer by roughly 7%. Home prices, however, may soon catch up.

Earlier this week, the Census Bureau reported Housing Starts at a multi-year high and the Existing Home Sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® showed the same. Housing is in recovery and prices are on an upward trajectory.

Take advantage of low mortgage rates while they last. Talk to your loan officer today.

Mortgage Rates Drop For The First Time In 4 Weeks

Freddie Mac mortgage rates

After 4 weeks of rising costs, Mesa mortgage rates finally recede.

According to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate dropped 7 basis points to 3.59% this week. Depending on where you live, however, you may find that your offered mortgage rates varies. Freddie Mac’s “published rate” is a national average based on a survey of more 125 banks.

The rates you receive as an individual vary by bank, and vary by region.

Mortgage applicants in the North Central Region were most likely to get the lowest rates of all applicants nationwide last week. By contrast, applicants in the Southeast Region were most likely to get the highest rates.

Average mortgage rates in the five U.S. regions, as tracked by Freddie Mac :

Northeast Region : 3.59 percent for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage
West Region : 3.58 percent for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage
Southeast Region : 3.64 percent for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage
North Central Region : 3.57 percent for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage
Southwest Region : 3.61 percent for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage

Across all 5 regions, mortgage rates were quoted with an accompanying 0.6 discount points, on average, plus a full set of closing costs. 1 discount point is equal to one percent of your loan size. Closing costs vary by county.

One year ago, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate averaged 4.22%. Today, it averages 3.59%. This 63 basis point difference yields a $36 monthly savings per $100,000 borrowed.

On a $250,000 mortgage, that’s $1,080 in savings per year.

If watched mortgage rates rise through August and felt as if you missed the market bottom, consider this week your second chance. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage does remains above its all-time low of 3.49 percent, but this week’s drop in rates in encouraging. It’s the biggest one-week drop in rates in more than 3 months.

Talk to your loan officer about how today’s mortgage rates can work for your budget.

Mortgage Rates Rise For Third Straight Week

30-year fixed rates rise

Mortgage rates in Scottsdale keep on rising.

According to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, for the third straight week, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate rose, this time tacking on 3 basis points on a week-over-week basis to 3.62%, on average, nationwide. The 3.62% mortgage rate is available to mortgage applicants willing to pay 0.6 discount points plus a full set of closing costs.

Freddie Mac’s published mortgage rates are compiled from a 125-bank survey.

Looking back, it appears that national 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates bottomed at 3.49% in late-July. In the weeks leading up to that bottom, mortgage rates had dropped in 11 of 12 weeks. Since then, though, rates have climbed steadily, moving to a 7-week high, depending on where you live.

Mortgage rates vary by region. As reported by Freddie Mac, mortgage applicants in the South Region currently pay the highest rates. Applicants in the North Central currently pay the lowest.

Northeast Region : 3.62% with 0.6 discount points
West Region : 3.59% with 0.6 discount points
Southeast Region : 3.68% with 0.6 discount points
North Central Region : 3.58% with 0.6 discount points
Southwest Region : 3.66% with 0.6 discount points

Meanwhile, mortgage rates don’t figure to drop in the coming weeks. The same forces that drove mortgage rates down between January-July of this year are the same ones that are driving rates up today — expectations for new Federal Reserve-led stimulus.

Earlier this year, the economy was stalling; growing slowly, but not convincingly. This led to Wall Street speculation that the Federal Reserve would implement a bond-buying program that would lead mortgage rates down, among other outcomes. The Fed said it would do what is necessary to keep the economy on track which only served to fuel such speculation.

Last month, however, at the Federal Open Market Committee, Ben Bernanke & Co. did not add new stimulus, and seemed content to take a “wait-and-see” approach with the economy. And, since then, Europe appears to have put itself on-track and the U.S. economy has shown signs of expansion.

This August rise in rates is Wall Street reversing its bets; making plans for no new stimulus at all.

Mortgage rates so remain low, though. If you’ve yet to join this year’s refinance boom, or if you’re hunting for a home, consider locking something in. In a few weeks, mortgage rates may be higher still.

The Federal Reserve Meets Today : Mortgage Rates Expected To Move

Interest rate difference between 30-year fixed and Fed Funds Rate 2000-2012

The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from a scheduled 2-day meeting today, its first of 8 scheduled meetings this year.

The FOMC is a designated, rotating, 12-person committee within the Federal Reserve, led by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Members of the FOMC sub-committee are the voting members of the Federal Reserve; the ones that ultimately determine U.S. monetary policy.

The most well-known Federal Reserve monetary policy tool is the central bank’s Fed Funds Rate. The Fed Funds Rate is the prescribed interest rate at which banks borrow money from each other for a period of one night.

The Fed Funds Rate can only be changed by FOMC vote.

For home buyers and would-be refinancing households in Mesa , it’s important to recognize that the Fed Funds Rate is an interest rate separate and distinct from “mortgage rates”. Mortgage rates are not voted upon by the Federal Reserve. Rather, mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds, a security bought and sold among investors.

Historically, there is little correlation between the Fed Funds Rates and 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates throughout AZ. Going back 20 years, the benchmark rates have been separated by as much as 5.29% and have been as near as 0.52%.

The spread has even gone negative, most recently in 1979 and 1981 — a period marked by high inflation.

Today, the separation between the Fed Funds Rate and the average, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate is roughly 3.60%. Beginning at 12:30 PM ET, however, that spread is expected to change. The FOMC will make its statement to the press at that time, and will release its quarterly forecast to the markets.

As Wall Street reacts to the Fed’s press release and projections, mortgage rates will move.

Investors expect the Fed to vote the Fed Funds Rate unchanged from its current range near 0.000 percent, but are unsure of how the Fed will characterize the U.S. economy. If the Fed speaks optimistically on the economy, stock markets should rise and mortgage bonds should fall, driving mortgage rates higher.

Conversely, if the Fed shows concern for future economic growth, mortgage rates should drop. Either way, today figures to be volatile one for mortgage markets.

When mortgage markets get volatile, the safe play as a rate shopper is to lock your mortgage rate immediately. There too much risk in floating.

Choosing A 15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Over A 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

Comparing 30-year fixed rate mortgages and 15-year fixed rate mortgages

It’s not just 30-year fixed rate mortgages that are posting all-time lows these days. The 15-year mortgage has been plunging, too.

If you’ve ever considered a 15-year loan term, it’s a terrific time to talk to your lender. According to Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey of roughly 125 U.S. lenders, at 3.30 percent, the 15-year fixed rate mortgage is at its lowest point in history.

The 3.30% rate doesn’t come for free, however. Based on average loan term nationwide, borrowers in AZ choosing to “go 15″ should expect to pay 0.6 discount points at closing. 1 discount point is equal to 1 percent of your loan size.

With low rates, 15-year fixed rate mortgage can be enticing; a primary benefit is the huge reduction in the long-term interest costs of your loan. The downside, though, is that monthly mortgage payments can be relatively large.

At today’s mortgage rates, a 15-year fixed rate loan carries a principal + interest payment of $705.10 per $100,000 borrowed — a 46% increase over a comparable 30-year fixed rate loan. If you can manage the bigger payments, though, you’ll reap $47,000 in interest payments savings per $100,000 borrowed in paying off your loan in full.

$47,000 per $100,000 borrowed is a huge amount of savings and those saved monies can be used to fund items such as college, home improvement, and retirement, among others.

That said, the 15-year fixed rate mortgage is not for everyone.

Because it comes with higher monthly payments, the 15-year fixed rate mortgage may add financial stress to your household budget. And, once you have committed to a 15-year loan term and its payments, you’re can’t “go back”. Your lender won’t revert your loan to a 30-year schedule without a refinance, and a refinance could be costly.

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Posts Tagged ‘30-Year Fixed’

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week: February 25th, 2013

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