Housing Analysis | Arizona Mortgage

My Blog

Archive for the ‘Housing Analysis’ Category

Detroit Leads All Case-Shiller Cities In Home Price Improvement

Case-Shiller Annual Changes August 2011

The August 2011 Case-Shiller Index was released this week. On an monthly basis, 10 of 20 tracked markets worsened. On an annual basis, valuation degradation was worse.

Only Detroit and Washington, D.C. posted higher home values in August 2011 as compared to August 2010, rising 2.7% and 0.3%, respectively.

However, the index has been moving in the right direction. Since bottoming out in March of this year, the Case-Shiller Index is up nearly 4 percent.

As home buyers and sellers in Scottsdale , though, we have to remember that the Case-Shiller Index is a flawed product; its methodology too narrow to be the final word for housing markets.

The Case-Shiller Index has 3 main flaws.

The first Case-Shiller Index flaw is its relatively small sample size. Although it’s positioned as a national housing index, Case-Shiller data represents just 20 cities nationwide, and they’re not even the 20 most populous U.S. cities. For example, cities like Houston (#4), Philadelphia (#5), San Antonio (#7) and San Jose (#10) are excluded from the Case-Shiller Index findings.

By contrast, Minneapolis (#48) and Tampa (#55) make the list.

A second Case-Shiller Index flaw is the way in which it measures home price changes. The Case-Shiller Index formula ignores all home sales except for “repeat sales” of the same home. New homes don’t count for the Case-Shiller Index. Furthermore, the index ignores condominium and multi-family home sales, too.

In some cities, condos can account for a large percentage of sales.

And the third Case-Shiller Index flaw is that the data is reported on a 2-month lag. Next week marks the start of November, yet we’re still discussing data from August. A lot can change in two months (and it often does). Today’s market conditions are similar to — but not the same as — market conditions from before Labor Day.

The Case-Shiller Index is far from “real-time”.

As a monthly release, the Case-Shiller Index does more to help people with a long-term view of housing, including politicians and economists, than it does for everyday buyers and sellers who negotiate prices based on current demand and supply.

A real estate agent can tell you which homes have sold in the last 7 days, and at what prices. The Case-Shiller Index cannot.

Despite 18% Contract Failure Rate, Home Resales Stay Strong

Existing Home Supply

Despite fewer homes for sale nationwide, the number of home resales remains steady.

According to data from the National Association of REALTORS®, on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, September’s Existing Home Sales eased by 150,000 units, falling to 4.91 million units nationwide.

An “existing home” is a home that’s been previously occupied and, despite last month’s drop, September’s sales volume remains the second-highest on record since April 2011.

This statistic is noteworthy for two reasons :

There are 9.9% fewer homes available for sale as compared to 12 months ago
Contract “failures” are twice as high as compared to September 2010, now averaging 18 percent nationwide

A contract failure is typically the result of homes not appraising for the purchase price; mortgage denials in the underwriting process; and, insurmountable home inspection issues.

Because sales volume is steady, we can infer that more buyers are “in the market” than the final sales tallies would have us believe. This notion is also evident in the Existing Home Supply data.

In September, the number of homes for sale fell by 69,000 nationwide. At the current pace of sales, it would take 8.5 months to “sell out” the complete national inventory. This is more than 2 months faster as compared to September 2010 — a major improvement for the housing market and a sign that home prices should rise soon.

Today’s Phoenix market exemplifies Supply and Demand. Demand for homes is holding steady as home inventories fall. This creates pressure for home buyers to make offers, and multiple bidding situations become more common. Negotiation leverage shifts to the sellers and the result is that buyers pay higher prices for homes.

Thankfully, mortgage rates remain low.

Freddie Mac reports that the 30-year fixed rate mortgage ticked lower this week, averaging 4.11% nationwide with 0.8 discount points. This means that mortgage payments are lower by $46 per $100,000 borrowed as compared to the high-point of the year.

You may pay more for a new home, in other words, but you’ll pay a lot less to finance it.

Finding Truth In September’s Housing Starts Report

Housing Starts 2009-2011 Headlines in newspapers can be misleading — especially with respect to housing figures. Media coverage of the most recent Housing Starts data serves as an excellent illustration.

Wednesday, the Census Bureau released its September Housing Starts report. In it, the government said that national Housing Starts rose 15 percent in September as compared to August 2011, tallying 658,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis.

The September reading is the highest monthly reading since April 2010, the last month of last year’s home buyer tax credit.

The sudden surge in starts is big news for a housing market that has struggled of late, and the press was eager to carry the story. Here is a sampling of some headlines:

U.S. Housing Starts Rise 15%, Hit 17-Month High (MarketWatch)
Home Building Jumps 15% in September (ABC)
New Construction Surges In September (LA Times)

These headlines are each accurate. However, they’re also misleading.

Yes, Housing Starts did surge in September, but if we remove the “5 or more units” grouping from the Census Bureau data — the catgory that includes apartment buildings and condominium structures — we’re left with Single-Family Housing Starts and Single-Family Housing Starts rose just 1.7 percent last month.

That’s a good number, but hardly a great one. And for home buyers and sellers throughout Mesa and nationwide, it’s the Single-Family Housing Starts that matter most. Individuals like you and I don’t buy entire apartment buildings. Most often, we buy single-family homes. Therefore, that’s the data for which we should watch.

The good news is that media tales work in both directions.

Building Permits dropped 5 percent last month when the volatile 5-unit-or-more-units category was included from the math. Isolating for single-family homes, we find that permits were unchanged.

This is good housing because 82% of homes begin construction within 60 days of permit-issuance, hinting at a steady, late-fall housing market.

Homebuilder Confidence Rises on Surging Sales Volume, Foot Traffic

Homebuilder Confidence 2009-2011 Homebuilder confidence is rebounding sharply.

Just one month after falling to a multi-month low, the Housing Market Index rebounded four points to 18 for October. It’s the highest reading for the HMI since May 2010 — the month after last year’s homebuyer tax credit expiration.

The Housing Market Index is published monthly by the National Association of Homebuilders and is scored on a scale of 1-100. Readings above 50 indicate favorable conditions for homebuilders. Readings below 50 indicate unfavorable conditions.

The index has been below 50 since May 2006 — a 66-month streak.

The Housing Market Index is a composite reading; the result of three separate surveys sent to home builders each month. Builders are asked about current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume over the next 6 months; and current “foot traffic”.

In October, builder responses were stronger in all 3 categories :

Current single-family sales : 18 (+4 from September)
Projected single-family sales : 24 (+7 from September)
Buyer foot traffic : 14 (+3 from September)

Meanwhile, of particular interest to today’s Scottsdale home buyers is that builders expect volume to surge over the next two seasons. And, with current sales volume rising and foot traffic strengthening, the fall and winter months could be strong ones in the new homes market.

In addition, the builder trade group press release states that rising costs for materials are squeezing building profit margins.

For buyers, it all adds up higher home prices ahead. As builders grow more confident about the housing market, they’re less likely to make concessions on pricing or upgrades. Rising building costs fortify that argument. The “great deal” will be tougher to negotiate.

At least mortgage rates are low.

Low mortgage rates are keeping homes affordable in Arizona and nationwide. If you’re looking for the right time to buy new construction, therefore, this month may be it.

Foreclosure Rate Drops For The 12th Straight Month

Foreclosures by state September 2011 Foreclosure activity continues to slow throughout the United States.

According to data from RealtyTrac, a national foreclosure-tracking firm, the number of foreclosure filings dipped below 215,000 in September 2011, a 6 percent decrease from August.

A “foreclosure filing” is defined as any foreclosure-related action including Notice of Default, Scheduled Auction, or Bank Repossession.

September marks the 12th straight month in which foreclosure filings fell year-over-year.

There are several reasons why foreclosure filings are down, including an increase in the amount of time it takes banks to move a foreclosure through its pipeline. It now takes a nationwide average of 336 days from the date of initial default notice to bank repossession.

Some states work quicker than others, however, because of a combination of state law and personnel.

Homes in New York take an average of 986 days to foreclose, for example, the longest in the country. Homes in Texas foreclose the quickest, registering just 86 days.

As in prior months, bank repossessions remain concentrated by state. Just 6 states accounted for half of the country’s REO last month:

California : 16.6 percent
Georgia : 8.5 percent
Florida : 8.3 percent
Texas : 6.2 percent
Michigan : 6.1 percent
Illinois : 5.2 percent

Collectively, these 6 states represent just 36 percent of the nation’s population.

By contrast, the bottom 6 states were home to just 192 repossessions last month — 0.3% of the national total. Those 6 states were Alaska, Wyoming, District of Columbia, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Vermont.

For home buyers in Scottsdale , shopping for foreclosed properties can be an excellent way to get “a deal”. Foreclosed homes typically sell at discounts as compared to “non-foreclosed” homes, but are often sold “as-is”. This means that homes listed for sale may be defective or out-of-code.

Before placing a bid on a foreclosed home, make sure that you’re represented by an experienced real estate professional.

Home Values Rose For the 4th Straight Month

Home Price Index from April 2007 peak

The government is confirming what the private sector has already shown — home values are on the rise.

The Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index shows home values rose 0.8% in July.

July marks the fourth straight month that home values climbed and the FHFA’s Home Price Index is the latest in a series of “rising home values” reports — an encouraging trend for buyers and sellers in Scottsdale and nationwide.

Last week, the S&P Case-Shiller Index showed home value up nearly 1 percent in July. CoreLogic reached a similar conclusion.

Nationwide, values are back to their highest levels since November 2010. Clearly, the housing market in AZ is moving in the right direction. Or is it?

Although the data from the government and from private firms such as CoreLogic is encouraging, it’s also flawed. As such, we have to be careful about the conclusions we draw from the data.

The flaws of Home Price Index are glaring :

Only homes backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac are included in the index. In today’s market, because of the FHA’s popularity, that leaves 1 of 3 homes “uncounted”.
Only home resales are counted. New home sales are omitted entirely.
The data comes with a 60-day delay. The October market is different from July’s.

Despite these shortcomings, however, the Home Price Index remains relevant. It’s among the most through home valuation models and it’s often used by economists and policy-makers.

When the Home Price Index is rising, Wall Street and Capitol Hill take notice. For residents of “Main Street”, however, the data may not be as important. To get local, up-to-date market statistics , talk with a professional real estate agent.

Since peaking in April 2007, the FHFA’s Home Price Index is off 17.6 percent.

Despite Low Rates, Pending Home Sales Slip In August

Pending Home Sales graph Despite the lowest mortgage rates of all-time, home buyers are slowing the pace at which they’re buying homes.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, the Pending Home Sales Index fell 1 percent in August.

The Pending Home Sales Index measures homes under contract, but not yet sold, nationwide. In this respect, the Pending Home Sales Index is a forward-looking housing market indicator; a predictor of future home sales.

It’s one of the few national indices that “looks ahead” to future market conditions. Most housing data, by contrast, describes past events.

On a regional basis, only the South Region showed improvement in August’s Pending Home Sales Index report :

Northeast Region: -5.8%
Midwest Region : -3.7%
South Region : +2.6%
West Region : -2.4%

That said, even the value of regional data can be questioned. Like all things in real estate, the number of homes going under contract will vary on the local level.

For example, in the Northeast Region where pending home sales slipped in August, there are close to a dozen states. Some of those states performed better than others, and there is no doubt that cities and towns exist in the region in which pending home sales actually climbed.

As a national/regional report, the Pending Home Sales Index cannot show local market data and, for that reason, it’s somewhat irrelevant to everyday buyers and sellers in Phoenix. If you’re in the market to buy or sell a home today, it’s your local housing market data that matters to you.

We watch the Pending Home Sales Index because it paints a broad picture of housing nationwide. To get local market conditions, though, you’ll want to talk with a local real estate professional.

Case-Shiller Index : 85% Of Tracked Cities Showed Home Price Improvement In July

Case-Shiller monthly change (June - July 2011)

Standard & Poors released its monthly Case-Shiller Index this week. The Case-Shiller Index measures home price changes from month-to-month, and year-to-year, in 20 select U.S. cities. It also reports a “national” index; a composite of the values in said cities.

The most recent Case-Shiller Index shows a 0.9% rise in home values from June to July 2011. Home values were higher in 17 of the 20 tracked cities. Only Phoenix and Las Vegas fell. Denver was flat.

Also noteworthy is that, of all of the Case-Shiller cities, Detroit posted the strongest 1-year, home price improvement. As compared to July 2010, home values are higher by 1.2 percent in Detroit. This bests even Washington, D.C. — long-believed to be the nation’s healthiest housing market.

That said, we should be careful of the conclusions we draw from July’s Case-Shiller Index — both on a city-wide level, and on a national level. This is because, as with most “home price trackers”, the Case-Shiller Index has flaws in its methodology.

The first Case-Shiller Index flaw is its limited scope. Although it’s purported to be a “nationa”l housing index, the data that comprises the monthly Case-Schiller Index is sourced from just 20 U.S. cities. These 20 cities represent just 0.6% of the more than 3,100 municipalities nationwide.

The second Case Shiller Index flaw is that the sample sets include single-family, detached homes only. iCondominiums, multi-unit homes, and new construction are specifically excluded from the Case-Shiller Index.

In some markets, “excluded” home types outnumber included ones.

And, lastly, the Case-Shiller Index is flawed in that it takes 2 months to gather data and report it. It’s nearly October, yet we’re still discussing the real estate market as it existing in July. For buyers and sellers in Scottsdale , July in ancient history.

The Case-Shiller Index is useful for tracking long-term trends in housing, but does little to help individuals with their choices to buy or sell a home. For relevant, recent real estate data, talk to a real estate agent in your market. Real estate agents are often the best source for real-time, real estate data.

New Home Sales Figures Better Than Reported

New Home Sales August 2010 - August 2011 According to the Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold slid for the fourth straight month in August, easing 2 percent from July. On a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, home buyers bought 295,000 newly-built homes last month.

August marked the lowest new home sales tally since February. News outlets are jumping on the story, with at least one calling it a “blow” to the housing market.

That’s an unfair assessment.

It’s tough for the new home market to tally big sales numbers when the number of homes for sale is dwindling and, in August, that’s exactly what we saw. The number of new homes for sale nationwide fell to 162,000 last month. This is the fewest number of new homes for sale since at least 1993, the first year the Census Bureau tracked such data.

In other words, using New Home Sales as a housing market gauge may be misleading. A better metric may be new home supply.

In August, new home supply edged 0.1 months higher to 6.6 months. This means that, at today’s sales pace, the complete new home inventory would be sold out in 6.6 months.

It’s the second-fastest reading in 2 years.

The new home market represents an interesting opportunity for home buyers in Mesa. Builders are facing new competition from bank-owned homes and foreclosures, dragging builder confidence to all-time lows. Furthermore, builders have low expectations for the next 6 months.

As a buyer, you can use this to your advantage. Builders may be more willing to negotiate on price and finishes versus this time last year. You may find a good “deal” in new construction once you go in search of it.

Existing Home Sales Jump; Home Supplies Falling

Existing Home Sales Aug 2010 - Aug 2011

Are home resales rebounding?

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, Existing Home Sales rose 8 percent in August from the month prior, and 19 percent as compared to August of last year.

“Existing homes” are homes that are previously owned; ones that cannot be considered new construction.

A total of 5.0 million existing homes were sold last month on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This is slightly better than the 12-month home resale average, a statistic partially powered by “distressed sales”. Distressed homes — homes in various stages of foreclosures or sold via short sale — accounted for 31 percent of all home resales in August.

At the current rate of sales, the national home resale inventory would be depleted in 8.5 months. This pace is a full month faster as compared to July, and the lowest home supply reading since March 2011.

Other noteworthy facts from the August Existing Home Sales report :

There are currently 3.58 million existing homes for sale nationwide
29 percent of home buyers paid cash in August
Real estate investors bought 22% of homes in August, up from 18% in July

Home prices throughout Phoenix are based on Supply and Demand and, at least right now, it appears the supply is dropping. Furthermore, with mortgage rates at all-time lows, it’s reasonable to expect demand to pick up. These two conditions should lead home prices higher.

If you’re shopping for a home right now, recognize the trends and work them to your advantage. It may be “cheapest” to buy now.

Become a Fan the Arizona Mortgage Mark Taylor Team on Facebook

Follow Mark Taylor's Arizona Mortgage Team on Twitter

Check out Mark Taylor's Arizona Mortgage YouTube Video Channel

Check out Mark Taylor's Arizona Mortgage Blog for the latest mortgage news, updates and more

See how much Arizona Mortgage Klout Mark Taylor has

by Mark Tayloron | Arizona Mortgage | The Mark Taylor Teamon |

National Disclaimer:

AmeriFirst Financial, Inc., 1550 E. McKellips Road, Suite 117, Mesa, AZ 85203 (NMLS # 145368). 1-877-276-1974. Copyright 2014. All Rights Reserved. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement. Not all customers will qualify. Information, rates, and programs are subject to change without prior notice. All products are subject to credit and property approval. Not all products are available in all states or for all loan amounts. Other restrictions and limitations apply. License Information: Click Here for Licensing

Real Estate Websites & Realtors Websites & Realtor Websites by Char Bennett of YourSiteNeedsMe

Arizona Mortgage

Arizona Mortgage

Get Started

My Blog

Archive for the ‘Housing Analysis’ Category

Detroit Leads All Case-Shiller Cities In Home Price Improvement

Related Articles:

Despite 18% Contract Failure Rate, Home Resales Stay Strong

Related Articles:

Finding Truth In September’s Housing Starts Report

Related Articles:

Homebuilder Confidence Rises on Surging Sales Volume, Foot Traffic

Related Articles:

Foreclosure Rate Drops For The 12th Straight Month

Related Articles:

Home Values Rose For the 4th Straight Month

Related Articles:

Despite Low Rates, Pending Home Sales Slip In August

Related Articles:

Case-Shiller Index : 85% Of Tracked Cities Showed Home Price Improvement In July

Related Articles:

New Home Sales Figures Better Than Reported

Related Articles:

Existing Home Sales Jump; Home Supplies Falling

Related Articles: