June, 2011 | Arizona Mortgage

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Archive for June, 2011

Housing Starts Climb Unexpectedly In May

Housing Starts (2009-2011) The housing market received a jolt of good news Thursday. The Commerce Department reports that Single-Family Housing Starts improved in May.

As compared to April, last month’s Single-Family Housing Starts rose 4 percent to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized rate of 419,000 units, a figure slightly better than the 6-month average and the highest tally since January.

A “housing start” is defined as a home on which new construction has started.

In addition, Building Permits saw a boost in May, too, climbing nearly 9 percent overall. Building Permits are a gauge of future construction activity with 89 percent of permits leading to new construction within 60 days.

For several reasons, the May data surprised Wall Street analysts.

First, more homes being built suggests a healthier housing market, yet, earlier this week, the June homebuilder confidence report posted its lowest reading since September 2010.

Second, new home sales are only slightly higher than their all-time lowest annualized readings. Sales volume remains low in Scottsdale and nationwide.

And, lastly, home prices have yet to recover in full. By adding additional inventory, builders may suppress price growth through the remaining portions of 2011.

For home buyers in AZ , though, the Housing Starts data may be a signal that the market is turning. The data can be used to your advantage.

Home prices are a function of supply and demand and — based on the Housing Starts data plus the number of newly-issued Building Permits — home supply is likely to rise. Demand, on the other hand, despite low mortgage rates, may not. At least not in the short run.

As a buyer, you can use this information to your advantage. If you’re looking to buy new construction, ask your real estate agent about the current new homes supply. There are bargains to be found and May’s Housing Starts data should support low prices for at least the next few weeks.

Monthly Foreclosure Count Drops For 16th Straight Month

Foreclosures per Capita May 2011

Foreclosure rates are falling.

According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac, monthly foreclosure filings fell 2 percent in May to just under 215,000 filings nationwide. A foreclosure filing is defined as any one of the following: a default notice, a scheduled auction, or a bank repossession.

On an annual basis, foreclosure counts have dropped over 16 consecutive months, dating back to January 2010.

Like all things in real estate, though, foreclosures are local. 6 states accounted for more than half of the country’s foreclosure filings in May. Those six states — California, Michigan, Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Texas — represent just 34% of the U.S. population.

But even on a per household basis, the figures remain disproportionate.

Top 10 Foreclosure States : 1 foreclosure per 357 households, on average
Bottom 10 Foreclosure States : 1 foreclosure per 8,764 households, on average

The nationwide foreclosure rate was 1 foreclosure per 605 households.

As a home buyer in Scottsdale , foreclosures matter. Distressed homes account for close to 40% of home resales and that’s because distressed properties often sell at steep discounts; in some markets, up to 20 percent less than a comparable, non-distressed home. Foreclosed homes can be a great “deal”, therefore, but only if you’ve done your homework.

Buying a bank-repossessed home is different from buying from “people”. The contracts and negotiation process are different, and homes are sometimes sold with defects.

If you plan to purchase a Arizona foreclosure, therefore, speak with a real estate professional first. With foreclosures, there’s a lot you can learn online, but when it comes time to submit an actual bid, you’ll want an experienced agent on your side.

Mortgage Rates Surge On May Retail Sales Figures

Retail Sales history The jobs market is recovering slower than expected, and so is housing. But neither condition has slowed U.S. consumers.

According to the Census Bureau, Retail Sales rose for the 11th straight month in May. Excluding cars and auto parts, sales receipts climbed to $322 billion last month. It’s an all-time high and another example of the U.S. economy’s resiliency.

Wall Street didn’t expect such results. As a result, mortgage rates worsened Tuesday.

By a lot.

The connection between Retail Sales and mortgage rates can be fairly tight in a recovering economy. Retail Sales accounts for almost half of all U.S. consumer spending, and nearly one-third of the economy overall. The May report, therefore, showed the economy may be on more solid footing than economists expect.

Plus, lately, as the economy goes, so go mortgage rates in Mesa and nationwide.

When the economy has shown signs of life, mortgage rates have increased. When the economy has shown signs of a slowdown, mortgage rates have dropped.

It’s why mortgage markets reacted the way they did Tuesday; May’s Retail Sales data was strong. The resultant surge in conforming mortgage rates — from market open to market close — turned into one of the year’s fiercest, raising average mortgage rates well off their 7-month lows established earlier this week.

At today’s rates, each 0.125 percent change in rates yields a payment difference of $7.50 per $100,000 borrowed. Yesterday, some product rates rose by as much as 0.250 percent. It put a dent in home affordability and household budgets.

With Retail Sales are up 8 percent from last year, therefore, and showing few signs of a slowdown, today may be a prudent date to lock a rate with your lender. As the economy continues to grow, rates are expected to rise.

Is This The Start Of A Refi Boom? Mortgage Rates Fall For 8 Straight Weeks.

Freddie Mac mortgage rates 2010-2011

Mortgage rates are falling, falling, falling.

On a wave of uncertainty about Greece and its debt; and weaker-than-expected economic data at home, conforming 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates have fallen to levels not seen since December 2, 2010.

Mortgage rates have dropped 8 weeks in a row. Not even last year’s Refi Boom produced an 8-week winning streak. This season’s streak is historic.

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage now averages 4.49% nationally, down 42 basis points, or 0.42%, since early-April. For every $100,000 borrowed, that equates to a monthly savings of $25.24.

Adjustable-rate mortgages have shed even more, giving back 50 basis points since the streak began.

Because of low rates, it’s an excellent time to buy or refinance a home relative to just a few weeks ago. Note, though, that depending on where you live, you may find your quoted interest rates to be slightly higher or lower than what Freddie Mac reports in its survey. This is because the Freddie Mac figure is a national average.

Mortgage rates and fees vary by region:

Northeast : 4.49 with 0.6 points
Southeast : 4.52 with 0.8 points
North Central : 4.52 with 0.6 points
Southeast : 4.52 with 0.6 points
West : 4.45 with 0.8 points

You’ll notice that, in the West Region, rates tend to be low and fees tend to be high; in the North Central Region, the opposite is true. You should expect AZ to have its own pricing norm within this region, too.

Is there a particular rate-and-fee setup that suits you best? The good news is that you can ask for it — no matter where you live.

If having the absolute lowest mortgage rate is more important to you than having the absolute lowest fees, ask your loan officer to structure your loan in the “West” style. Or, if low costs are more your style, ask for them.

Mortgage rates appears as if they’re headed lower but don’t forget how quickly markets can change. Once they do, mortgage rates in Mesa should spike. Exploit today’s market while you still can.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : June 13, 2011

Housing Starts 2009-2011 Mortgage markets moved in feverish fashion last week, changing with extreme frequency, and eventually ending slightly worse on the week. Conforming mortgage rates fell to a 6-month low Wednesday but, by Friday, they had retreated higher.

Last week marked just the second time in 8 weeks that rates in Phoenix increased. During that span, Freddie Mac reports that mortgage rates have dropped 42 basis points, or 0.42%.

That equates to a monthly savings of $25.24 per $100,000 borrowed.

One reason why mortgage rates have been dropping is that the economy is growing more slowly than projected. In a speech last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke described the U.S. recovery as “frustratingly slow”. In a separate speech, another Federal Reserve President, William Dudley, categorized the recovery as “subpar”.

Economic weakness tends to promote a low mortgage rate environment as equity markets sell off and investors seek safety of principal. Indeed, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the 6th straight week, its longest losing streak since 2002.

Mortgage rates were also helped by ongoing uncertainty in Greece. The nation remains at-risk for default, and that’s spurring a bond market to flight-to-quality which benefits the U.S. mortgage market, too.

This week, mortgage rates may reverse their recent slide. There isn’t much data due for release, but the numbers that will hit the wires have the ability to move markets — especially the inflation-linked figures.

Tuesday : Producer Price Index, Retail Sales
Wednesday : Consumer Price Index
Thursday : Housing Starts
Friday : Consumer Sentiment

If you’ve been looking at mortgage rates for a purchase or refinance, now may be a good time to lock. FHA and conforming rates are at their lowest levels since December 2010.

Going forward, rates have much more room to rise than to fall.

Moving To A New City? See How Much Your Cost Of Living Will Change.

Cost of Living varies from town to town It’s a fact: It’s more expensive to live in some cities than others. Beyond just the costs of buying a home, different cities also carry a different Cost of Living. For households relocating from AZ and across state lines, the change in “life costs” can be jarring.

Depending on where you live, everyday expenses — from groceries to gasoline — make a different-sized dent in a household budget. And now you can see in numbers by how much your expenses might change.

Visit Bankrate.com’s Cost of Living Comparison Calculator.

The Cost of Living Comparison calculator is as basic as it is thorough. The calculator asks just 3 questions — (1) Where do you live now, (2) To what city are you moving, and (3) What is your salary — and uses your answers to produce a detailed, 60-item cost comparison between the two towns.

The city-to-city cost comparisons include:

Dry Cleaning Costs
Total Energy Costs
Beauty Salon Costs
Movie Costs
Dentist Visit Costs

The list also features a mortgage rate comparison, and a comparison of local home prices.

The Cost of Living calculator is based on data from the ACCRA. On the ACCRA website, a similar report sells for $5. At Bankrate.com, the information is free.

Temporary Conforming Loan Limits Expire September 30, 2011

Conforming Loan Limits lowered in 2011 If you live in a high-cost area, keep an eye on your calendar. Effective October 1, 2011, temporary conforming loan limits will be lowered nationwide. Perhaps by as much as 14 percent.

These limits range up to $729,750 currently.

“Temporary loan limits” were enacted as part of the government’s 2008 economic stimulus package. At the time, the financial sector was entering its crisis and private mortgage lending had all but disappeared. Financing was scarce for both homeowners and home buyers for whom loan sizes exceeded Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s national $417,000 limit — even for those with excellent credit and income.

The issue was exacerbated in places like New York City where local home prices routinely topped $1 million. Buyers unable or unwilling to bring a substantial downpayment to closing (i.e. $600,000 or more) found themselves without financing.

The February 2008 package addressed this issue, using a math formula to change loan limits in Mesa and nationwide. The government assigned to each U.S. metropolitan area a temporary, new loan size limit equal to 25% greater than its respective median home sale price, not to fall below $417,000, and not to exceed $729,750.

Then, later that same year, the Housing and Recovery Act made “high-cost areas” permanent, but with a reduced 15% increase to median home prices, and loan sizes not to exceed $625,500.

These new limits take effect October 1, 2011 — one day after the temporary limits expire.

If you live in a high-cost area, therefore, take note. Mortgage rates may be low, but the amount of loan for which you qualify may be less than you expect, and you may find yourself ineligible.

Whether you’re planning a refinance or a purchase, keep an eye on the calendar.

The complete list of high-cost areas is available online.

“Homes Under Contract” Plunge 12 Percent In April

Pending Home Sales 2009-2011

Hurt by foul weather and a soft market, the Pending Home Sales Index plunged 12 percent in April.

The monthly index is published by the National Association of REALTORS® and measures the number of homes on which new contracts have been written.

It’s the association’s lone “forward-looking” report; meant to predict future, closed home sales. 80% of homes under contract close within 2 months.

Therefore, if the April Pending Home Sales Index is accurate, we should expect home sales to decline through June and July.

On a regional basis, “pending homes” varied. The Northeast Region posted growth. None others did.

Northeast Region: +1.7% from March
Midwest Region : -10.4% from March
South Region : -17.2% from March
West Region : -8.9% from March

But even regional data remains too broad to be useful to everyday buyers and sellers in the Scottsdale market. Housing is local and that means that each block, of each street, in each city has its own market and economy. Grouping 9 states into a single “region” is neither helpful nor relevant.

That said, we can’t ignore the data in its entirety.

Housing is believed to be a key component in the nation’s economic recovery. Fewer home sales will retard growth, and slower growth leads mortgage rates down.

Home Affordability hit record-highs last quarter, and should do the same in this one. Homes now sell at discounts to prior prices and mortgage financing is cheap. Buyers tend to be drawn to favorable markets such as this, and that will pressure home prices higher.

If you’re in the market for a home today, conditions look good. Talk to your real estate agent to gauge your options.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : June 6, 2011

Non-Farm Payrolls June 2009 - May 2011 Mortgage markets improved last week, carried by the same stories that have led markets better since April. Worries of a Eurozone sovereign debt default mounted, and the U.S. economy’s revival showed itself to be slower than originally anticipated.

In Greece, the nation readied itself for its second bailout in two years. The austerity measures of last year have not worked as planned. There are concerns that a default would lead to contagion, delivering the Euro region into an economic tailspin.

These fears spurred a flight-to-quality in bond circles to the benefit of U.S. mortgage rate shoppers.

In addition, last week’s U.S. jobs data fell short of expectations, giving another boost to mortgage markets.

There were 3 weak reports:

ADP showed 38,000 private-sector jobs created in May. Analysts expected 170,000.
The Department of Labor showed 422,000 Initial Jobless Claims. Analysts expected 415,000.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 54,000 jobs created in May. Analysts expected 150,000.

Each of these data points underscores the fragile nature of the U.S. recovery, and the weaker-than-expected readings helped mortgage rates improve.

It’s the sixth week of 7 that mortgage rates in Mesa have improved, setting the stage for a new wave of refinances.

This week, there is very little new data on which for mortgage bonds to trade. Therefore, expect the stories from recent weeks to continue to dominate headlines. If Greece’s austerity and/or bailout plan is met with investor optimism, mortgage rates should rise. If the plan falls flat, mortgage rates should fall.

There will also be chatter about the U.S. debt ceiling, another potentially negative force on mortgage rates.

If you’re floating a mortgage rate right now, consider locking in. There’s a lot more room for rates to rise than to fall.

Case-Shiller Shows Home Values Rolling Back 9 Years

Case-Shiller Annual Change March 2011

The March Case-Shiller Index was released this week and it corroborates the findings of the government’s most recent Home Price Index — home values are slipping nationwide.

According to the Case-Shiller Index’s publisher, Standard & Poors, home values fell in March from the year prior.

The March report was among the worst Case-Shiller Index readings in 3 years. On a monthly basis, 18 of 20 tracked markets worsened. Only Seattle and Washington, D.C. showed improvement, rising 0.1% and 1.1%, respectively.

On an annual basis, price degradation was even worse.

Washington, D.C. is the only tracked market to post higher home values for March 2011 as compared to March 2010. The national index has now dropped to mid-2002 levels.

As a buyer in today’s market, though, you can’t take the Case-Shiller Index at face value. It’s methodology is far too flawed to be the “final word” in home prices.

The first big Case-Shiller Index flaw is its relatively small sample size. S&P positions the Case-Shiller Index as a national index but its data comes from just 20 cities total. And they’re not the 20 most populous cities, either. Notably missing from the Case-Shiller Index list are Houston (#4), Philadelphia (#5), San Antonio (#7) and San Jose (#10).

Minneapolis (#48) and Tampa (#55) are included, by contrast.

A second Case-Shiller flaw is how it measures a change in home price. Because the index throws out all sales except for “repeat sales” of the same home, the Case-Shiller Index fails to capture the “complete” U.S. market. It also specifically excludes condominiums and multi-family homes.

In some cities — such as Chicago — homes of these types can represent a large percentage of the market.

And, lastly, a third Case-Shiller Index flaw is that it’s on a 2-month delay. It’s June and we’re only now getting home data from March. Today’s market is similar — but not the same — to what buyers and sellers faced in March. The Case-Shiller Index is far less useful than real-time data of a city or neighborhood.

The Case-Shiller Index is more useful to economists and policy-makers than to everyday buyers and sellers in Mesa. For better real estate data for your particular neighborhood, ask your real estate agent for help.

A real estate agent can tell you which homes have sold in the last 7 days, and at what prices. The Case-Shiller Index cannot.

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Archive for June, 2011

Housing Starts Climb Unexpectedly In May

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Monthly Foreclosure Count Drops For 16th Straight Month

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Mortgage Rates Surge On May Retail Sales Figures

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Is This The Start Of A Refi Boom? Mortgage Rates Fall For 8 Straight Weeks.

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : June 13, 2011

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Moving To A New City? See How Much Your Cost Of Living Will Change.

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Temporary Conforming Loan Limits Expire September 30, 2011

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“Homes Under Contract” Plunge 12 Percent In April

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : June 6, 2011

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Case-Shiller Shows Home Values Rolling Back 9 Years

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